The two sides have cooperated throughout the Syrian conflict despite supporting opposing sides, with Erdogan seeking the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad and Putin deploying significant military resources to prop up Assad’s government.

But the escalating conflict in Idlib has changed that, and a Syrian government bombardment that killed at least 36 Turkish soldiers last week has left a ceasefire agreement signed by Russia and Turkey in Sochi in 2018 in tatters and put the countries on a collision course, Dilleen said.

The countries’ competing interests in Syria show that their blossoming relations are destined for failure, Dilleen said, even though the pair have closely cooperated in defence and energy deals, including Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 missile defence systems.

Erdogan’s call to the United States for help in Idlib despite angering his U.S. allies with the S-400 purchase shows the lengths the Turkish leader is willing to go to regain the upper hand in Idlib, the analyst said.

But this will prove difficult since Turkey’s pursuit of an independent foreign policy has left it increasingly isolated, he said.

“The key to the current crisis will be whether Moscow and Ankara can reconcile the competing strategic priorities that define their relationship and find common ground on the question of Idlib,” said Dilleen.

“The risk for Erdogan is that Putin has already proven adept at using coercive diplomacy to bend Erdogan to his will and that he will continue to do so by forcing Erdogan to accept a compromise in Idlib that favours Russia,” he said, adding that even a compromise would be better for Turkey than no deal.

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