The date also marked 26 years of the imprisonment of Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan, with a general strike taking place in the region. 

With Assad’s removal two months ago, Syria’s conflict entered a new phase and a clear resolution appears to be distant. The ex-jihadist HTS controls Damascus and most of the state apparatus. Various minorities in Syria are slowly being bent to the authority of the new regime, as international support comes in to stabilise the new government. Meanwhile in the north a front is being fought between the Turkish proxy Syrian National Army (SNA), supported by Turkish artillery, aircraft and drones, and the the Syrian Democratic Forces, a multi-ethnic but predominantly Kurdish military which has NATO backing—but perhaps not for long.

Lately, the SNA and Turkey have sought to deprive key Rojavan strongholds of water. The attacks on Şiyûxa Jorîn’s water facility on 2 February have left two hundred thousand people at grave risk. The motive was to paralyse the city of Kobane, which made waves around 2015 as the symbolic stronghold of Kurdish fighters who defeated ISIS while creating for themselves a model of governance based on confederation, gender equality and multiculturalism. 

Thousands of civilians have also flocked to Tishrin Dam to protect it from Turkish air strikes and hold vigils against SNA and Turkish war crimes. Several people have been killed in drone strikes during this campaign. The dam is being targeted with the intent of flooding the land in the Euphrates Canton, forcing the Kurds and others who live there to flee in what amounts to ethnic cleansing.

Given that the US and Turkey remain NATO allies, an ongoing proxy war is unlikely. Instead, the region could possibly face long-term partition between these two factions, with a new regime attempting to navigate a fragile balance between Turkish, Saudi, and Western interests. In the worse but more likely scenario, Trump will push to withdraw support from the SDF. The people of Rojava will be forced to accept integration into a new Syrian state under the rule of an Islamist force, or face annihilation under the bombs of the Turkish army. Either way, the pressure on the Kurdish-led forces to abandon their revolutionary aspirations will only grow.

Negotiations between Damascus and SDF continue, but no agreement seems within reach. In the background, however, there have been diplomatic efforts to resolve the decades long Turkey-PKK conflict. A proposal for the release of PKK founder Ocalan and a $14 billion development plan for Kurdish regions have been widely promoted in Turkey, in exchange for PKK disarmament within Turkey’s borders. However, trust issues persist, especially with ongoing Turkish military strikes against Kurdish positions in Iraq and sweeping arrests of Kurdish activists in Turkey. 

Ocalan has undergone a significant ideological evolution during his 26 years in solitary confinement, shifting from Marxist-Leninist militancy to advocating for dialogue and grassroots democracy in the struggle for Kurdish self-determination. His encounter with Murray Bookchin’s ideas led him to develop a theory which emphasises participatory governance, feminism, and minority rights. 

By Daniel Adediran and Blade Runner 

Freedom News