Dr. Zhigar Hassan, a professor at King College University in Canada and the director of the Middle East and Africa Research Group at the University of Western Ontario, has done a lot of studies on the Kurdish issues, especially in Iraq. KurdPress has interviewed him to review the developments in Iraq and the Kurdistan region in recent months.

What follow are his answers to KurdPress questions;

How do you assess new strategic negotiations between Baghdad and Washington? What role do the Kurds play in these talks?

During Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s recent visit to Washington DC, he and President Donald Trump emphasized the need for America and Iraq to continue working together on developing Iraq’s economy and improving security in Iraq and along its borders. These issues were the main sources of discussion, and we should expect the Americans to continue their efforts to bolster Iraq’s security in order to protect American economic and strategic interests in the region. To this end, one of America’s main objectives in hosting Prime Minister Al-Kadhimi is to continue to ensure Washington has influence over Baghdad especially relative to Iran. In other words, American and Iraq will continue to work closely and cooperate on the security front.

The Kurds have largely been sidelined in these discussions and negotiations. President Trump mentioned the Kurds in passing during the press conference, and Prime Minister Al-Kadhimi didn’t mention them at all. This is significant because it highlights the degree to which the Kurds have lost their leverage in participating and shaping meetings and negotiations between America and Iraq. The Kurds will effectively have to work with whatever agreement Washington and Baghdad settle on.

Emmanuel Macron, Unlike Francois Hollande, former France’s President, talked to Kurdish leaders in Baghdad, not in Erbil; do you think that this has a specific message for the Iraqi Kurds? What Macron can do for the Baghdad and Erbil, especially in stopping Turkey attacks in Northern Iraq?

Certainly, President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to meet with Kurdish leaders in Baghdad rather than Erbil is yet another blow to Kurdish aspirations for more autonomy. That Macron did not meet the Kurds in Erbil, like Francois Hollande and other world leaders before him, demonstrates that Baghdad is in control and that foreign governments will back Iraq’s sovereignty.

Macron and France may be able to provide some political encouragement to the Kurds and Baghdad to improve their relations, but ultimately France is not very influential in Iraqi politics. Likewise, neither Macron nor any other foreign official can do much to stop the Turkish air assaults on the Kurdish region of Iraq.

Do you think that Mustafa Al Kadhimi is able to make a good deal with the Kurds regarding oil, disputed areas, and other issues?

I believe that Mustafa Al-Kadhimi has an opening and the opportunity to make progress on many fronts in Iraq. Prime Minister Al-Kadhimi has been entrusted to improve the economic situation, provide security, crackdown on corruption and nepotism, and negotiate with the Kurds to resolve longstanding issues such as oil revenues and the disputed territories. His mandate is very broad and ambitious. As a result, my reading of the situation is that Al-Kadhimi simply does not have the time to address all of these major challenges. His main task is to be a caretaker prime minister and to organize early elections, and his government will be preoccupied with managing the numerous militias that have emerged in Iraq. I don’t believe that al-Kadhimi will have the time or the political capital to resolve the ongoing disputes between Baghdad and the Kurds.

We know that right now, a new generation of Iraqi Kurdish leader is dealing with Baghdad and outside the country. They are Jalal Talabani and Masoud Barzani’s successors. How do you see them?

There is some reason to be hopeful that a younger generation of Iraqi Kurdish leaders is now making important political decisions on behalf of the Kurdish region of Iraq. However, I’m pessimistic that individuals such as Qubad Talabani and Masrour Barzani will be able to make any meaningful changes to the Kurds’ relations with Baghdad and neighboring countries. The main reason for this is that there are such rigid institutional and systemic barriers in place that make it difficult to bring about consequential change. In other words, although the face of the Kurdish leadership is new, the outdated and traditional political parties and their interests will continue to shape and influence the Kurds’ relationship with Baghdad and their economic and social development. These institutional rigidities will be very difficult to change.

Neither the Iraqi government nor the Kurdish regional government has been able to stop Turkey attacks in Northern Iraq. The U.S tries to unite Iraq, Erbil, and Turkey against the PKK? Who can stop it?

Prime Minister al-Kadhimi vowed that his government would engage with Turkey in an effort to put an end to Turkey’s bombing of the Kurdish region of Iraq. We should not expect any progress on this front. The presence of the PKK in the Kurdish region of Iraq is enough to justify Turkey’s military actions in Iraq. Neither Iraq nor the Kurds have the capabilities to expel the PKK from Iraq. As such, Turkey will continue to conduct air bombings of purported PKK targets. In addition, we know that Turkey has tacit support and approval from the Kurdish leadership in Iraq to conduct such bombings over parts of the Kurdish region.

Reporter’s code: 50101