Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections are to be held in less than two months.
But according to experts, last winter's severe earthquake in Turkey, which left nearly 50,000 people dead, as well as the coalition of six main opposition parties in Turkey, minus the Kurdish parties, can have an impact on the results of Turkish elections and, unprecedentedly, challenge the 20-year rule by Erdogan, the current president of Turkey and the candidate of Justice and Development Party (AKP) presidential candidate and parties aligned with.
Answering the question that how the recent earthquake would influence Erdogan's position and the upcoming elections, the professor told Kurdpress that the question is wether the firm block of AKP voters and supporters of Tayyip Erdogan who have supported him throughout the last two decades - say 30-35-40% of the electorate - desert him and the government because of the great destruction and death caused by the earthquake. "Certainly, there is a great deal of anger at the government for their lack of regulation of the building industry, which many people suspect is a result of corrupt relationships between government and businessmen and companies. Do AKP voters also share this anger? They must in the earthquake zones themselves. In those areas, however, the government has a chance to win back the trust of their previous voters in the efficiency, fairness, and rapidity of their response to the suffering there. But given the criticisms of the government's responses, at least on anti-government social media, I think that even pro-AKP voters in areas affected by the earthquake will have been disillusioned and thus will be less inclined to vote for the government."
About the effect of the quake on AKP voters in Istanbul or Ankara or the Black Sea, where they did not experience the disaster but saw its images on the media, he stated "Pro-AKP voters are very loyal. They also mainly consume the media that is pro-government. That media only tells a pro-government story. And as we know, Turkey is a very polarized society. Will AKP voters in Turkey big cities change their vote? Perhaps some will. But more importantly, there is another 'problem' for the AKP in the coming election, which is really a problem for the Turkish working class and lower-middle class. This is the Government's terrible economic policies that have produced the huge level of inflation, which in the end is a severe 'tax' on working people and a cause of their slow impoverishment. Given that the AKP gains a large proportion of their vote from the working class and the poorer segments of Turkey's cities, the economic crisis will surely affect their level of voter support."
"They don't like the opposition either. But I suppose they have to vote for someone so yes, this provides an opportunity for other parties," he said about the AKP voters who no longer back Erdogan and his policies.
About the role of the PKK- announced temporary ceasefire for the sake of quake-hit people and it's possible impact on a peace deal between Turkey and PKK, Dr. Houston said he was pessimistic in this regard, saying "I see no change in the government's response to the PKK or to the Kurdish issue. They are in an alliance with the ultra-Turkish nationalists after all! AKP Islamism has failed to bring any progress to the Kurdish regions or any democratization of the state."
"Kurds in Turkey are obviously not one 'thing.' Some are firm AKP supporters, for instance. Some Alevi Kurds will obviously vote for the CHP. Other Kurds with a sensitivity to history will never vote for the original Kemalist [nationalist] party," the university professor said about the role of the Turkey Kurds in the upcoming polls, continuing to say "Many will vote HDP, provided they can participate in the election. The opposition block - the 5- or 6-party coalition - has some parties in it that are firm enemies of Kurdish self-determination, decentralization of the state, and of multiculturalism. So why would Kurds vote for it? As is unfortunately too common in Turkey, in this election there may be no good choices for Kurdish voters (except for HDP)."