A political analyst and a Geopolitics Alert editor, James Carey, told Kurdpress in an interview that the Kurds in Syria are in a very dangerous and tough situation and they are better to negotiate with the government in Damascus, warning that there is the possibility of an uncovered deal over the Kurds.

Specialized in Middle East and Asian affairs, he advised the Kurds to sit at negotiation table with officials in Damascus as soon as possible so as they could save their achievements which they have fought for.

What follows is his full answers to Kurdpress questions;

How do you explain Trump's decision regarding the US going out from Syria? Is there any deal between Trump and Erdogan?

I think there are 2 major factors at play in Trump’s decision.

The first motivation he has is the fact that bringing troops home from what Obama called the bad wars and Trump referred to as “dumb wars” was one of the campaign promises that the part of his base opposed to conflicts supported by neoconservative establishment foreign policy consensus. Trump has wanted to withdraw troops for some time but as stories from inside the White House illustrated, some of the highest members of his cabinet often actively worked to subvert that goal.

Erdogan’s role in all of this in my opinion is that he provided Trump a much needed excuse to leave Syria. Trump has already waffled on support for the YPG in the past, telling turkey they would confiscate arms supplied by the US to fight IS but I think the possibility of a confrontation with Turkey was just something Trump did not feel like doing. Reports claim now that Erdogan’s call did play a big role in Trump pulling out of Turkey and I’m inclined to believe that because overall, Trump as a man is lazy and I believe when he was faced with the option of either fighting Turkey or just saying “forget this,” the latter won out and Trump has pulled troops because he just doesn’t care to confront Erdogan.

What will the situation be like for the Kurds?

I think the Kurds are in a bad position. With the US leaving, and Erdogan promising to “wipe out the rest of ISIS” it’s fairly clear that this is a lie. Erdogan has provided plenty of material support to IS over the course of the war in Syria. TRT reported this weekend that Turkish troops are fortifying positions around Manbij. Turkey likely has no intention of going after the remaining IS elements and will leave that to Damascus and Moscow while Erdogan focuses on the YPG/SDF. Erdogan is waiting for US troops to leave now but that just means it’s likely he’ll attack after US forces are gone and air support for the YPG is cut off.

Can the Kurds preserve their gains without US and Russian help?

Unfortunately, I don’t think so. I personally think the best option for the YPG now is to begin sincere dialogue with Damascus. Even with Afrin occupied by Turkey, Kurdish ground forces still have credibility as a fighting force and could likely work out some kind of autonomy agreement with Damascus. Washington is obviously ready to give the Turks free reign around Manbij and with Trump saying he’ll pull air support for the YPG time is running out.

What do Turkey and Assad have to gain from the US departure?

Turkey clearly has the chance to just launch a full scale operation against the Kurds as soon as the US troops leave Syria. Turkey would love to occupy the Euphrates valley the same way they have occupied Afrin and if given the chance they will.

This is a situation Assad may be able to benefit from. If Damascus can make a deal to preserve some of the autonomy fought for by the Kurds in the last few years, he may be able to forge an alliance with the YPG/SDF that can scare the Turks back across the border.

That said, there is a possibility that another deal has already been worked out for northern Syria. Turkey, Iran, and Russia have agreed on a new constitutional framework for Syria and it makes me wonder if there isn’t a larger agreement behind it. My concern now is that Turkey may have the green light from Moscow to occupy northern Syria to wipe out the YPG in the name of “reconciliation”. I think it is possible Turkey has a deal like this to integrate their factions of the FSA into a new Syrian government. If there is some kind of bargain like this for the future of Syria that would likely mean Erdogan is being relied on to handle the threat posed to Ankara and Damascus by the YPG.

Reporter’s code: 40101