What lies behind this 21st century Turkish Stockholm Syndrome? Why have so many Turks fallen in love with their executioner? The socio-political factors on which Erdogan's popularity is based are too extensive to address in one brief article. It is worth noting, however, that there is a missing link between Erdogan's popularity and universal democratic values.

In its 2020 assessment, Freedom House put Turkey on its list of countries that are “not free.” Other countries in Turkey’s grouping include Afghanistan, Angola, Belarus, Brunei, Chad, Djibouti, Eritrea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Myanmar, North Korea, Nicaragua, Qatar, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. According to the World Justice Project, Turkey ranks 107th out of 128 countries on rule of law. According to Reporters Without Borders’ (RSF) press freedom ranking, Turkey is 154th out of 180 countries, scoring worse than Pakistan, Congo, and Bangladesh.

That embarrassing performance would suffice to overthrow a dozen leaders in any part of the democratic world. In addition, corruption and nepotism are rampant in Turkey but reporting on them can be very dangerous. What of welfare, then? Turkey’s per capita income is barely $8,500.

A maverick Turkish YouTube channel recently carried out a social experiment. A few days after Erdogan said Turkey’s future was in Europe, an interviewer went to a crowded Istanbul square with a microphone to solicit the opinions of passersby. Giving the question a deliberate twist, the interviewer asked one man: “What do you think about the main opposition leader’s comments that Turkey’s future is in Europe?” “How wrong,” the man answered. “Europe is our enemy.” The interviewer then apologized and said, “Oh, my mistake! My editors just told me it was Erdogan who said Turkey’s future is in Europe. Your comment?” “But of course,” the man replied. “If Erdogan said it, it is true.”

Who is that man, and the 25 million or so other Turks who unconditionally vote for Erdogan? In a 2018 study, pollster KONDA profiled the Erdogan fan:

Sixty six percent are primary or secondary school graduates. Only 10 percent have a university degree.

• Eighty nine percent of AKP voters’ fathers are primary or secondary school graduates.
• Forty five percent live on a monthly income between 1,201 and 2,000 liras ($162-270).
• Fifty nine percent say they hardly make ends meet.
• Forty six percent identify themselves as traditionally conservative and 43 percent as religiously conservative.
• Eighty seven percent identify themselves as either pious or religionist.
• Only 13 percent of the women surveyed do not wear any kind of Islamic headscarf.
• Eighty three percent are Turks while 11 percent are Kurds.
• Four-fifths say they would never vote for any leader other than Erdoğan.
• Only 3 percent think Turkey’s foreign policy is a failure.
• Fifty two percent say they feel insecure in Turkey.
• Only 20 percent do not approve of government restrictions on access to social media.
• Only 23 percent think Turkey should become a member of the EU.
• Eighty nine percent approve of the government’s forceful appointing of trustees to private companies.
• Ninety one percent approve of the government’s forceful closing of educational institutions (schools and universities).
• Thirty six percent acknowledge that the government arbitrarily and unjustly detains innocent people.
• Seventy six percent approve media bans for national interests.

In a 2019 study, researcher SODEV found that only 50.6 percent of AKP voters thought the judiciary was independent and only 57.3 percent that the courts were unbiased. Overall, only about a third of Turks believed they had an independent and unbiased judiciary.

More recently, in November 2020, an opinion poll conducted by researcher Arti Bir revealed that only 1.7 percent of Turks trusted the courts and 1.2 percent trusted parliament.

And in December, research house Optimar found that only 2.4 percent of Turks thought their country’s biggest problem was its democratic deficit. Engin Ardic, a pro-government columnist, commented: “This means 98 percent of the people do not have a problem about democracy.”

That’s the heart of the matter. Advanced democratic standards, or the acute lack of them, have never been a game changer in any Turkish election. In other words, democracy does not sell in the Turkish market.

AKP voters, who make up 40 to 50 percent of all Turkish voters, are less educated, religiously conservative, relatively poor, and insecure Erdogan fans who do not care about democratic values and approve of his authoritarianism. That profile gives Erdogan carte blanche for further oppression, which, again, will come with no political cost.

Research shows that most Turks are happy with their ballot box democracy with no checks and balances, weakened institutions, government-controlled judiciary, and widening democratic deficit. Let them enjoy it.

Ahval

Reporter's code: 50101