After alliances among Shiite blocs were made public — and for the first time following the May 12 general elections — there were visits to Erbil to discuss the government formation. A Fatah Alliance delegation led by Hadi al-Amiri arrived July 6 in Erbil, and a delegation of the State of Law Coalition led by Nouri al-Maliki held talks he deemed “successful” with the Kurdistan Democratic Party’s (KDP) leaders July 7, also in Erbil.

The KDP, which is led by Massoud Barzani, voiced during the encounters conditions for an alliance with the largest “Shiite bloc” tasked with forming a government.

KDP member Khosro Kuran said, “In order for the KDP to ally with a particular straightforward and known bloc, the latter needs to commit to the [Iraqi] Constitution, particularly when it comes to Kirkuk and the rest of the disputed areas. It is also required to have a government program to successfully bring about the things that the former governments failed to do with regards to this subject.”

Article 140 of Iraq's constitution calls for a referendum to determine the status of Kirkuk and other territories disputed between the central government and the Kurdistan region, but Baghdad has consistently delayed a vote.

“There were preliminary talks with the Shiite blocs in Erbil, which brought the State of Law Coalition and Fatah Alliance closer together. Yet it is too early to speak of an alliance,” Kuran told Al-Monitor.

Nevertheless, he pointed out that the KDP’s talks with the winning blocs are held on neither a sectarian nor nationalist basis, although reports spoke of a list of joint conditions between the KDP and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).

Spokesman for the PUK Saadi Ahmad Bira told a Baghdad-based newspaper, “Both parties’ politicos will meet July 12 in Erbil to select the Kurdish delegation that will engage in talks with the winning blocs." Bira anticipated that both parties will draft a list of Kurdish demands in the upcoming days, the newspaper reported.

Speaking to Al-Monitor over the phone, Bira said, “The PUK communicated its demands to the Shiite delegations that visited Kurdistan. These demands consist of improving services and living conditions in the Kurdistan Region.” He noted that “outstanding issues between Baghdad and Erbil should be resolved as part of a constitutional framework. Parties winning the ballot are required to resolve them as part of a clear government program.”

Knowingly, the Kurds call for the application of Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution to normalize the situation in Kirkuk and other disputed areas, perhaps have peshmerga forces restore Kirkuk, and settle the Kurdish oil dispute and share of the federal budget. Before the Kurds take part in the government, the concerned Shiite bloc needs to ensure the fulfillment of these demands.

It is possible to attribute the delayed Kurdish-Shiite talks — it's been nearly two months since the elections — to obstructed inter-Shiite talks to form “the largest bloc” in charge of designating a premier under the Iraqi Constitution. Although Sairoon Alliance leader Muqtada al-Sadr announced earlier that he reached an alliance with Haider al-Abadi’s al-Nasr Coalition and the Fatah Alliance, these alliances have yet to become official. Sadr wrote in a July 9 statement, which coincided with the Kurdish-Shiite talks, “Political blocs should refrain from involving the US and our neighboring countries in talks on forming alliances and what comes next. This is our business as Iraqis — not theirs.”

He added, “My advice is that all political blocs refrain from forming abhorred sectarian and ethnic alliances and alignments. In turn, I am against any [purely] Sunni, Shiite, Kurdish or other alignment.” He reiterated that he is willing “to cooperate to reach an alliance that goes beyond any partisan, sectarian and nationalist shares.”

These remarks indicate that Sadr is so far dissatisfied with the talks and that Shiites have begun resorting to Kurdish and Sunni blocs in order to form the largest bloc or agree on a candidate for the premiership.

Karim al-Nuri, a member of the Fatah Alliance, told Al-Monitor, “The present talks will neither be official nor produce a significant thing before ratifying the elections’ outcomes and announcing when the first parliament session is going to be held.”

“The Kurdish political parties cannot be excluded from the future government. Everyone is aware of that, and it is only normal to negotiate with them. This, however, does not necessarily mean that alliances are being shaped presently,” he added.

Nuri indicated that “similar talks to exchange views are also being held with the Sunni parties that won the elections. Yet they will not be based on sectarian shares.”

So far, there appears to be no significant, clear international interference in the Iraqi talks. Those who won the elections are convinced that the manual recount will not change much when it comes to the number of seats they grabbed. The most prominent actors on the Iraqi scene, however, are Washington and Tehran, and neither plans to get involved or pressure political blocs to halt talks about a government formation. Such talks could drag on for months, as all parties are standing firm on their demands regardless of how long this takes them.

The latest talks in Erbil are only a prelude to the decisive talks that will take place in Baghdad once the elections’ official results are ratified. Subsequently, a “consensual” Shiite premier will be designated, although it is hard to ensure that the Kurdish and Sunni parties’ demands will be met. Despite being well aware of that, Kurdish and Sunni parties are holding on to particular demands until they get the posts they wish for.

Omar Sattar is an Iraqi journalist and author specializing in political affairs. He has worked for local and Arab media outlets and holds a bachelor’s degree in political science.

Al-Monitor

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