In the past year, Turkey has expanded its sphere of influence into Africa, intensifying its attacks on the Kurds inside Turkey, Syria and northern Iraq, and has entered into disputes with some countries in the Eastern Mediterranean over oil and gas resources. KurdPress has interviewed James Carey, an expert on Turkey and the Kurds, as well as the editorial board of Geopolitical Alert.

What follow are his answers to KurdPress questions;

Turkey's attack on Iraqi soil has killed some Iraqi army officers, Can Erbil and Baghdad do anything beyond condemning Turkey attacks?

Not really at this point. Erbil is under pressure from the US to secure resources in northern Iraq. The Kurdish government also likely remembers the failed independence referendum and how quickly that fight ended. Were they to retaliate against Turkey I think we’d see a similar result and possibly even the involvement of the PMUs again as Ankara and Tehran get closer.

It’s also Turkey’s ties to Iran and the US that are also putting the pressure on Baghdad, which can’t respond to Turkey with force without risking angering both nations.

Do you think that these attacks can wipe out the PKK?

No, that goal is next to impossible. Sure the PKK are operating in Iraq and Syria now but following the Iraqi referendum and Syrian conflicts, it is unlikely Kurdish regions in these two countries will be allowed similar levels of autonomy to the past. Baghdad and Damascus will both likely crack down on their respective Kurdish populations but I’m sure the PKK will remain active even if the leadership has to move to a different location. While I doubt any European nation would take PKK leaders now, with the pressure they’d face from Turkey and Turks in Europe but I don’t see it being outside the realm of possibilities that a GCC member could take in some Kurdish leaders and aid the PKK in an attempt to delegitimize the AKP. There are parties that would have an interest in keeping the PKK alive and we may see them become more public as Erdogan expands Turkish influence.

Syrian Kurds have an agreement with a U.S company in order to modernize the Kurdish-controlled oilfields; Can Turkey nullify that? Is that a good tool regarding saving the Syrian Kurds?

I doubt Turkey can override the deal. The Turkish designs for Syria have failed and the Syrian rebels have proven a poor substitute as a force to occupy northern Syria and actually maintain daily operations. The US has restricted Turkish operations due to domestic politics here but there is also a bipartisan consensus here that US forces should remain in Syria and the Kurds protected.

The US can’t and doesn’t trust Erdogan and they would never leave him fully in charge of such a crucial operation. The US, as stated openly by Trump, is extremely interested in Syria’s oil and protection of said oil and a country like an openly hostile Turkey under the AKP is too opportunistic. On top of that, there would inevitably be even more war crimes by the Turks and their proxies if they were given even more room to breathe. Since the US is already worried about how bad Erdogan is making them look in Syria, it’s basically just an unstated fact that we will not leave the occupation of Syria up to them.

It seems that Turkish Kurds have lost all the achievements they got during the peace process. Who can save Turkey Kurds: the opposition, the PKK, or an international involvement?

I don’t think there will be another agreement or even a ceasefire until the AKP is gone. Erdogan can’t let up on smearing the Kurds or he’ll lose support from the nationalists in his base. The international community is basically silent on the ongoing war in southern Turkey or even the overturning of elections in the region and I don’t think the PKK can bring Erdogan to the bargaining table as he messes up everything else in Turkey and his approval rating backslides. Soon, hyping up the PKK threat will be all he has left. My hope is that after last election when basically every party besides the AKP and MHP was in the anti-Erdogan coalition that we will see this group take power one day and this spirit of goodwill carries over into a new government.

Do you think that there will be a war between Turkey and Egypt or Turkey and Greece regarding Libya civil war and disputes over Mediterranean oil and gas?

I find the possibility of another Greek-Turkish war extremely unlikely but nothing is impossible given how little the EU and US are doing to try to end the situation. Now Turkey and Egypt fighting over Libya, I can see. I think Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are all threatened by Turkey’s growing influence and its role in Libya. As the GCC-aligned nations also move toward Israel and Erdogan moves Turkey away from Tel Aviv there will be urging by Israel for other regional powers to try and subvert Turkey’s role in the Islamic world.

Reporter’s code: 50101