If successful, it could completely reshape dynamics across the region. The objective of Turkish leaders is clear: disarming the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), de-securitizing Turkey's relations with its southern neighbors, boosting economic recovery, and improving ties with the West - all achievements that would strengthen their standing ahead of the country’s upcoming general elections. While the Turkish leaders are well placed to emerge victorious, Iraqis, Syrians, Arab states, and the West all have an interest in a sustainable peaceful resolution.

Turkey is home to more than half of the over 40 million Kurds worldwide, as well as millions of people who belong to other non-Turkish communities, including Arabs. However, the country is run like a nation-state for Turks alone, with limited integration of others into the state, and that is one major driver of grievances and internal conflict.

Since the previous peace process collapsed in 2015, Turkish leaders have deliberately leveraged their military superiority to undermine the PKK before re-engaging in negotiations with Kurdish leaders. They kept the “Ocalan card” close to their chest - the influence of the imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan - until they felt confident that they could dictate the terms.

After Ocalan delivers his message later this month, the PKK members exhausted by years of conflict are expected to cooperate with the Turkish authorities and engage in legitimate partisan political activity, becoming part of the Turkish political process through the pro-Kurdish Green Left Party (Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party). Turkey is then likely to announce amnesty for Ocalan and the PKK, and to gradually loosen the state’s authoritarian grip on Kurdish-majority cities in Turkey.

For Iraq and the Iraqi Kurds, the stakes are high. Failure would bring serious threats, and they have a lot to gain from peace. Both the Turkish Armed Forces and the PKK have established military bases in Iraqi Kurdistan, turning some of the region’s breathtaking mountains into conflict zones. Turkey has invaded Iraq several times in recent decades, thereby militarizing its relationships with both Baghdad and Erbil. At the same time, it has substantial economic interests in the country’s energy development, trade, and infrastructure.

Leaders in Iraqi Kurdistan are monitoring the situation closely and playing an active role in the cross-border multilateral discussions. They recognize that ending the conflict between Turkey and the PKK would mean a more stable region for the Kurds and a healthier relationship between Iraq and Turkey.

Syrian Kurds and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (commonly known as Rojava) have been even more of a stake in the conflict within Türkiye and have the most to gain for a successful peace process. Ocalan is likely to call on PKK fighters in Syria to withdraw, leaving Syrian Kurdish leaders to negotiate their future with their compatriots in Damascus, free of foreign influence or the threat of a Turkish invasion. In response, Turkey could reciprocate by restraining its proxies and avoid directly attacking Rojava.

Both the Kurdish and other communities in northeastern Syria have suffered from isolation and neglect for a long time. Over the past decade, they have garnered global esteem through their struggle for survival against ISIS. Now, they are fighting for full Syrian citizenship rights and guarantees that their human, political, and cultural rights will be respected. They do not want to be reintegrated into a purely Arab nation-state.

Syrian Kurdish leaders understand that neither Ankara nor Damascus are willing to agree to the adoption of a federal system or any form of additional autonomy exclusive to Rojava. Instead, they seek a symmetrically decentralized system that is acceptable to and applicable in all regions of Syria.

Fortunately, Syria’s new leadership has taken a moderate tone in dealing with the Kurds so far. However, they have yet to clarify how Kurdish rights will be codified in a unified Syria. They are beginning to realize that Syria cannot be reunified by the adoption of a new version of the highly centralized and authoritarian governance model of the past. Agreeing to a framework that creates a credible model for regional administrative autonomy across all provinces will be essential to building trust, fostering reconciliation, and preserving national unity.

Arab states have been broadly sympathetic to the Kurdish cause, and they are apprehensive about Turkey's growing influence in the region. While they have vehemently opposed Iran’s dominance of Syria, they do not want to see the country become a Turkish satellite state either.

It is crucial for Arab states to engage in the Turkish-Kurdish peace process, pushing Turkish leaders to de-securitize their relations with their southern neighbors, particularly Syria. By advocating for the respect of Kurdish rights within a unified Syria, Arab states would facilitate constructive engagement between Damascus and Syrian Kurds and negotiations on a shared future. This would accelerate Syria’s path to restoring its sovereignty, as well as reinforcing regional stability.

A comprehensive peace process with the Kurds would also improve Turkey's standing in the West. European countries and the United States all have a vested interest in stability. Over the years, they have invested significant political, financial, and military capital in neighboring states, and durable peace between Turks and Kurds would contribute to smoothing out complex security dynamics among the region’s network of actors, reducing cross-border conflicts, violent extremism, displacement (including refugees), and barriers to trade and economic growth. That is precisely what the West wants to see.

In return, the West can play a positive role by leveraging its influence to foster deeper and more structured dialogue among regional stakeholders. Fortunately, the new US administration has been advocating peace and economic partnership in the region. It is likely to welcome the Turkish-Kurdish peace process, which could ultimately pave the way for ending its US military presence in Syria.

The Turkish-Kurdish peace process presents a unique opportunity for Turkish leaders. They could use it to adopt inclusive policies that address the broader and more deep-rooted issues of the Kurdish cause, both inside and outside Turkey. Kurdish leaders across the region can embrace this initiative, turning it into a roadmap for a durable peace. Turks and Kurds must remain open to involving other regional and international actors who could play constructive roles and invest in broader regional peace and prosperity.

Dlawer Ala'Aldeen

Asharq Al-Awsat