The Turkish military build-up comes amid tension with both Russia and the United States over their ties to the Kurdish-led forces in the region known as the People’s Protection Units (YPG).
Earlier this month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country had “run out of patience” after accusing the YPG of a missile attack that killed two Turkish special operations police officers in northern Syria.
The missiles were allegedly launched by YPG fighters operating under Russia’s sphere of influence in Tel Rifaat, a town high on Ankara’s list of targets for a new incursion.
In 2018, Russia greenlighted Turkey’s military operation against the YPG in the nearby town of Afrin, but stopped short of allowing Turkish forces to enter Tel Rifaat, seen as a key gateway to the city of Aleppo and wider region.
However, the two powers have since found themselves increasingly at odds over Idlib province, where Turkey has sought to halt a Russian-backed offensive by the Syrian army against the last remnants of the armed opposition.
Meanwhile, Turkey continues to oppose the YPG’s relationship with the United States elsewhere in the region through the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of militias formed to defeat the Islamic State (ISIS).
In 2019, a partial withdrawal of U.S. troops allowed Turkey to launch a military offensive against the SDF in north east Syria, before international outcry saw Ankara negotiate separate ceasefire agreements with Moscow and Washington.
Low-level clashes continue between the SDF and Turkish-backed forces along the ceasefire lines, leading to repeated speculation of a new Turkish military operations.
Turkey accuses the YPG and SDF of links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), with which is has been partner to an internal conflict since the 1980s.
On Tuesday, the Turkish parliament renewed the military’s mandate to carry out cross-border campaigns in Syria and Iraq for a further two years.
Alongside operations in Syria, the Turkish military has sought to increase its presence around the PKK’s headquarters in the mountainous border region of northern Iraq, leading to significant clashes.
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