Turkey has been planning to launch a military operation in northeast Syria against the Kurdish People Protection Units (YPG) since November.

Ankara sees the YPG an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), an armed group designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the European Union, and the United States. The YPG, meanwhile, forms the backbone of the U.S.-led coalition forces fighting against the Islamic State (IS) in Syria.

Washington and Ankara have been discussing Turkey’s demand to establish a 20-mile deep safe zone in northeast Syria since December, but they are yet to agree on a plan, Ahval news agency reported.

Esper discussed the issue again with his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar in a phone conversation on Monday. The conversation did not go well, said Rubin, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Pentagon official.

Akar said that if the United States did not acquiesce to Turkish demands, Turkey would launch a full-scale military operation into northern Syria, according to the Turkish read-out of the phone call.

“If Esper wants to prevent a growing crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean or Syria, it is crucial he tell Akar there will be no buffer in Syria, and no more Turkish troops on Syrian soil,” Rubin said, referring to the current tensions between Turkey, Cyprus and Greece over hydrocarbon resources near Cyprus.

While Turkey justifies its demand saying that Kurdish-controlled regions in northern Syria are terrorist dens, in fact counter-terror concerns is not the real reason that motivates Turkey’s demands, Rubin said.

Turkey’s primary concern is a land grab, Rubin said, as the planned buffer zone will allow Turkey to control almost all Kurdish-governed towns and cities in northeast Syria. But the move could spark a civil war as Kurds who fled Turkey have nowhere else to go, the analyst said.

Secondly, a military campaign in Syria would help Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to distract Turks from his own failings, Rubin said. The Turkish government has for a year been struggling to reverse an economic downturn.

As Turks grew increasingly unhappy with the economic conditions, Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost the control in five of Turkey’s most populous provinces in March 31 local polls.

“Third, and perhaps most important, is Turkey’s thirst for oil,” Rubin said. Turkey’s aggression in Cyprus is motivated by the desire to maintain its monopoly over pipelines, and it wishes to acquire oil and gas resources of its own, he said. In Syria, what Turkey seeks is not only the expulsion of Syrian Kurds from the buffer zone, but also the possession of the oil reserves in the region, according to the analyst.

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