Paul Antonopoulos, a Middle East and Syria affairs analyst who has been closely monitoring the situation in Syria for years stated in the interview that one of the consequences of continuing crisis in Syria is the disagreement between the Kurds and the Syrian central government, and warned that this issue will be in Turkey's favor.

The Syria war winner

Answering the question that who is the winner in the Syrian war, the analyst stated that "with over half a million people killed, millions of refugees, and a country's infrastructure in complete ruin, there is certainly no winners in this war. However, if we look at the broader picture, Israel, Turkey, many of the Arab States and the Western powers not only expected President Bashar al-Assad to capitulate, but to do so in a relatively quick manner like had happened with Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. Assad survived and the geopolitical ambitions of foreign countries were not successful. From the Iranian perspective, Assad's preservation is a victory as their so-called Axis of Resistance is preserved. However, although Assad may rule the officially recognised government of Syria, the fact remains that large areas of Syria are under the control of Turkish-backed terrorist and the Syrian Democratic Forces. If we put "winner" or "loser" in simple terms, it appears that everyone in Syria has lost, except Iran."

Main reason behind disagreement between Kurds and Damascus

"There is no doubt that the reason the Kurds and Damascus cannot reach an agreement is because of the foreign powers backing either side. By the Kurds and Damascus not being able to reach an agreement, it continues to allow the Turks to conduct military operations to occupy more areas of Syria. We saw this happen in Afrin, Tell Abyad and elsewhere," Antonopoulos said about the reason behind the Kurds and Damascus's failure to make a deal.

The political expert further blamed Moscow and Washington for Turkey incursions into Syria and stated that "Both Russia and the U.S. have already shown that they are unwilling to stop Turkey, and the quicker the Kurds and Damascus come to this realization, the quicker steps can be made to expel the occupying forces."

U.S or Syria/Russia,

Answering that question that whether the Kurds are better to rely on the US or try to reach a deal with Russia and the Syria central government, Antonopoulos stated that "To answer this question, we have to ask serious questions about U.S. capabilities and their future ambitions in the region. If the Kurds hedge their bets with the U.S., can guarantees be made that the U.S. will back the Kurds for the long haul? We've already seen over many decades various promises made by Washington to the Kurds that were only then withdrawn. We saw this most recently in 2019 with Donald Trump. But Trump's action was not in isolation and follows a consistent path over many decades of the Kurds being used to achieve a certain goal for the U.S. to then only be abandoned. This consistent betrayal of course does not mean that Russia is automatically a better choice for the Kurds, but I suspect that Russia will be in Syria a lot longer into the future then the U.S. will, and this is a factor that the Kurds must consider in their decision making."

Continuing Turkey threats against Syrian Kurds

The analyst further stated that Turkey is undoubtedly a threat against the Kurds in Syria and that "There is no doubt that Turkey is, and will remain a continuous and endless threat to the Syrian Kurds."

"This is not an issue that began with Erdogan and will end with Erdogan, but is a consistent policy of the Turkish State. So long as Turkey refuses to become a pluralistic state with equal right, recognition and respect for the various ethnic and religious groups in the country, Kurds with aspirations for statehood will continue to be targeted, persecuted and killed no matter whether they are in Syria, Iran, Iraq or Turkey. Kurdish self-determination is the biggest challenge to a "Turkey for the Turks" and so long as the Kurds refuse to be Turkified and hold onto their language, culture and identity, they will always be seen as an enemy to the Turkish State," he also said, adding that countering the Kurds is the policy of all government in Turkey.

Kurds and saving their autonomous administration

Mr. Antonopoulos further said the Kurds are in a weak position to save their autonomy as they are dependent on the US and stated "The Kurds have no leverage to maintain their autonomous administration as it hinges on the support of the U.S. We saw in 2019 what happened when Trump withdrew support - Turkey immediately took advantage to seize control of large areas of northern Syria from the Kurds. An eventual U.S. pull out from Syria, and it will happen just as the U.S. is now pulling out of Afghanistan now after two decades, will mean that the Kurds will be vulnerable again."

About the future of Syria and path of the Kurds to save their position, the analyst said: "Meanwhile, the Arab Republic of Syria is maintained, and the Russian Naval Base in Tartus and Air Base in Khmeimim will become permanent features of the country. The Kurds, along with all other minorities in Syria including the Levantine Greeks, Armenians, Assyrians and others should demand an end to Damascus' policy of Arabism and call for a truly pluralistic Syria that by constitution has an equal status for all ethnic, religious and linguistic groups in the country. Although Syria is undoubtedly a much more tolerant country compared to most other countries in the region, by constitution for example, the president can only be Muslim. This is not true secularism, and so long as these issues are not addressed, various minorities in the country will continue to demand self-determination and will only lead to a path of Syria's permanent division."

Reporter's code: 50101