The median forecast of some 40 economists was for a contraction of 1.4% in 2020, with drops in the second and third quarters of 8.6% and 5.3% respectively.

Before the coronavirus outbreak, the government expected the economy to expand 5% this year after rebounding from a recession last year, according to Reuters.

The government has not updated its gross domestic product forecast since the country recorded its first case of COVID-19 in mid-March. The virus has since spread, putting Turkey seventh here globally in confirmed coronavirus cases.

The economy is expected to grow again next year by 3.7%, according to the poll’s median. For the first quarter of this year, the official report due on May 29 is forecast to show growth of 4.4%.

Ankara has shut schools and some businesses, closed borders and adopted weekend lockdowns. But it has stopped short of imposing a full stay-at-home order in an effort to support some economic activity.

Economists said robust lending in the first quarter positioned Turkey relatively well as it headed into the global downturn.

“We think that all sectors of the economy will be affected by COVID and we assume that most of the negative impact would concentrate on Q2-Q3 2020,” UBS economists said.

“Both investments and exports should outright contract in 2020 given the global slowdown from the pandemic. However, credit growth - while clearly expected to fall notably from current levels - might remain flat by end-2020.”

Reporter’s code: 50101