Karikar is a Muslim Salafist religious preacher who is the leader of several armed Islamist organizations and supports Bin Laden.

However, the general popularity of his works in Kurdistan should not be underestimated. An event that indicates a great change in the public opinion of the people.

In terms of comparison, this development can be compared with the rapid spread of Dr. Shariati's name and articles in Iran in the 1950s and the amazing increase of Islamic rituals and slogans.

Although it is too early to say that the sound of an Islamic revolution is heard in the region, one should not be complacent by not hearing these voices.

There is a general legality in the undemocratic Middle East which is suffering from poverty of political development: the fraught record of the failure of non-democratic and corrupt secular governments leads to the blocking of the concept of secularism.

Building Islamist alternatives and taking refuge in religion as an identity and emotional shelter is the product of this dialectic.

This is where serious and radical reforms are needed. Reforms which consider overcoming the current oligarchies, increasing the participation of people and political groups, and making fair distribution of wealth and employment opportunities.

✔️ The second alarm: The American Foreign Policy magazine has written a very critical and disappointing report about the situation of the Kurdistan region, under the warning title: Iraqi Kurdistan in danger of collapse!

This article and republishing it by the US Consul General in Erbil has angered the region's authorities. More from the point of view that it wants to put pressure on the rulers to carry out reforms.

The Foreign Policy article can also be considered an important event.

The Kurdistan Region would not have existed without the strategic support of the United States, and even now its survival depends on the various contributions of the country.

There is no doubt that the Foreign Policy article is a kind of warning. The kind of warnings that were given to Hamid Karzai, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, and of course they all ignored them!

The message was clear: We are disappointed of your corruption, profiteering, tribalism, and lack of civil and political maturity! This frustration leads to our hopelessness of nation-building and state-building in unstable regions which suffer from chronic and complex conflicts.

Therefore, our support is not eternal and we may leave in a not so distant day and do not look back!

Until the promised day of draft 2021 arrived and in the blink of an eye, Afghan democracy ended and the Taliban returned!

A similar warning has been issued for Kurdistan!

✔️ The third alarm: Iraq won the oil dispute with Turkey and the region, and the period of independent oil export of the region has practically ended.

If you ask me, I believe this transformation is beneficial to the region and its people. Oil can be both a blessing and a curse.

In the last eight years, when the Kurdistan Region sold oil through Turkey, it was more of a curse than a blessing!

The non-transparency of contracts and financial resources gained through oil export, extravagance and especial extravagance in the allocation of revenues, not only did not lead to the development of Kurdistan, but also put it in a risky position.

Oil destroyed the legitimacy and efficiency of political and social institutions and took political competition from the level of parties to families, cousins and individuals.

The super-capitalist class, which was formed through its connection with power, party and family, caused the formation of a new polarization in face of the vast majority of the destitute and the unemployed:

Us and them! We mean the majority of the people who have passed the stereotypical two poles of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, and they mean the cousins and prominent party cadres and etc.

The recent elections, held with a participation rate of about 30%, show this great erosion of the social capital in the region.

However, the main warning is about something else: Baghdad's increasing independence and successive legal and political victories over the region through domestic and international courts!

This development means that the twenty-year tenure of Baghdad is over and the Iraqi government, by diversifying its partners and reforming foreign relations and the relative peace inside, has freely risen to bind Erbil.

And in the worst possible situation: historical Kurdish leaders have mostly left the scene and the field has been prepared for the second and third inexperienced generation.

The young rulers are involved in difficult and complicated family, party and government competitions and have not benefited much from the wisdom, insight and flexibility of their predecessors.

Other things can be added to this list of warnings, but a nod is enough for a wise man!

By Salahaddin Khadiv

Reporter's code: 50101