"Whether Turkey will occupy another part of northeastern Syria or not depends on the wider talks between Russia and Turkey over Idlib and possibly Libya and Azerbaijan," Alexander McKeever told KurdPress.
Turkish-affiliated forces in Syria have tried several times in recent weeks to seize the strategic city of Ain Issa and its surrounding areas. Since Ain Issa is located near the important M4 road and its occupation by Turkey and the Syrian rebels will make the Syrian Kurdish forces and the Kurdish Autonomous Administration of Northern Syria very vulnerable.
The Kurds have tried to persuade Russia, as an ally of Turkey, and the Syrian central government, to prevent further Turkish attacks on the Kurds.
In an interview with KurdPress, Alexander McKeever, a researcher and observer of northern Syria affairs, described Moscow's role in the development of Ain Issa as vital. He stressed that it is Russia that can prevent the attacks or give Turkey the green light.
"It is not yet clear whether Turkish and insurgent attacks on Ain Issa will turn into a full-scale military operation," McKeever said, adding that "there have been reports of movements of Turkish-backed forces in Ain Issa, but I have not yet seen any indication that Turkish troops have entered the region. In any case, whether or not Turkey occupies another part of northeastern Syria depends on broader negotiations between Russia and Turkey over Idlib and possibly Libya and Azerbaijan."
Presence of US forces in Syria
"I think the Biden administration will continue to use US forces to play a role in fight against the ISIS, as well as in countering further advance of proxy forces in Syria," the analyst said about new US administration's support for the Syrian Kurds, as a main Washington ally in the face of Turkish attacks, continuing to stress that "Joe Biden will not make contradictory and unpredictable decisions about the US role in Syria, unlike the October 2019 phone call between Trump and Erdogan that led to Turkey's attack on the Kurds."
Regarding the new US administration's political support for the Syrian Kurds, he added: "Regardless of the stability in Biden's decisions, a large part of the US foreign policy elite - from both parties - are seeking to maintain US friendly relations with Turkey. I am not sure that Joe Biden will provide strong political support to the Syrian Kurdish forces or the Northeastern Syrian Autonomous Administration in order to counter the continuing Turkish attacks."
"As long as Joe Biden's administration stays out of the Trump administration's radical policy on Syria, the main US policy in Syria is to pressure Bashar al-Assad's government to resolve the Syrian issue politically, not to defend the political system of Northeast Syria in the face of further Turkey or Syria military attacks," concluded McKeever.
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