A writer and essayist, who focuses on topics such as philosophy, history and politics, Du Buisson, stated the US and Turkey have agreed over the formation of a safe zone in northern Syria but the agreement is still deadlocked.

The guarantor states of the Syrian conflict (Russia, Iran and Turkey) oppose the autonomy of the DAA/NES (The Self-Administration of North and East Syria) for various reasons. For the Turkish state, it views the NES as an extension of the 'Kurdistan Worker's Party' (PKK) in Syria, which is outlawed in the state. The rationale that the Turkish state gives for opposing the NES' project is due to Ankara perceiving that project to be 'terrorists' in nature, the analyst said, adding that Ankara's national security focus is on clearing the northeast of Syria from 'terrorists'. However, there are deeper motives for Ankara's opposition of the NES. These include preventing another Kurdish sub-state entity from forming along the border and to stop the encouragement of Kurdish autonomy in Turkey. In the case of the Russian and Iranian states, each are backers of the Assad government. The rationale for their opposition of the NES is to ensure the 'integrity and sovereignty' of the Syrian state under the central government. This is part of the reason why both do not support nor do recognize the autonomy of the NES. Due to these many reasons, the opposition of the Astana guarantor states thus comes as no surprise.

Answering a question about the agreed deal between Ankara and Washington over the creation of the so-called safe zone in northern Syria, Du Buisson further stated “the negotiations over the proposed 'safe zone' in northeastern Syria between the Turkish state and the United States of America are frozen at the moment. Ankara insists that the zone be thirty kilometers deep and governed by the Turkish state, however, the United States - with the interest of its local partner forces (Syrian Democratic Forces - SDF) - do not wish to make it that deep. The US has instead proposed a five-kilometer-deep safe zone that will be monitored by an international coalition of forces. However, at the moment, the Dutch, French and British governments seem to be the only parties that have agreed to send their forces.”

He also stated that Ankara still refuses this option of international monitoring, hence the frozen nature of negotiations. James Jeffrey is attempting to negotiate with a party (Turkish state) that is determined to annex parts of the northeast of Syria. I believe Erdogan's rhetoric on this situation will increase and there might be a limited intervention attempt in the near future by Turkish state to enter the NES in areas like Tal Abyad, but the US will likely prevent such an offensive before it comes into fruition. This will definitely be an area to watch out for.

Operation Claw - the Turkish state's recent military operation in the Kurdish Region of Iraq - is going as successful as older missions in the region against the PKK. The PKK's headquarters is located in the Qandil mountains and has been the base of operations for 'People's Defense Forces' (HPG), as well as the 'Eastern Kurdistan Units' (YRK) since the 1980s and 2000s, he said about the Turkish operation and added “Turkish-Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) relations are close at the moment with the KRG allowing Turkish bases in the north and operations by the Turkish Army. Erdogan's ambition to neutralize the PKK has meant an increase in operations targeting the group.”

What Erdogan wants is to neutralize the group for his nationalist base and political goals. This strongman approach that Erdogan's government in Turkey is doing is in the same vain as Mustafa Ataturk. Erdogan is interested in preserving his legacy as a statesman and leader in Turkey. As for the KRG, trade of oil between the government and Turkish state is vital for its economy. Therefore, keeping close relations with Turkish state - at times acting as a client state for it - is important to the longevity of KRG's survival, he also said.

About the relationship between the Safe Zone and Operation Claw, the analyst stated: “I refer back to my point of Erdogan desiring to neutralize the PKK. Erdogan wants to eliminate the group and any perceived affiliates well in office. This is a tremendous task that is likely to fail but Erdogan is pursuing that goal with an element of fanaticism. The Turkish state under Erdogan is undergoing a good deal of shifts from prior governments. Erdogan has turned the state into a strongman quasi-authoritarian state with himself at the top. Closer bilateral relations with Russia, growing animosity to the US and a push for a more involved Turkish state in the World shows Erdogan's desire to establish Turkey as a Eurasianist power. One that is strong and independent without the governing of external parties. Whether his succeeding is yet to be seen, however, the growing bilateral relations with Russia and the purchase of the S400 system shows a significant shift in direction of the Turkish state.”

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