Carey told Kurdpress that the two party leaders are not able to challenge the power of Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who is seeking to control more power both inside and out of its borders.

What follows are his full answers to Kurdpress questions;

Why trump is so eager not to punish Turkey for buying the Russian S-400 system or attacking Syrian Kurds, but both the Congress and Senate want to hold Turkey responsible for its activities?

I think there are two competing factions in the US government. Donald Trump, joined by some of the old cold-warrior types still see Turkey basically as a client state to carry out Washington’s objectives (primarily in regards to curbing Russian influence. While many of the leaders in the US who are worried about keeping Turkey as a ally tend to keep quiet about it but still allow Turkey to carry on with massive purges, electoral fraud, repression of free speech, etc.

While that first group of long-time government bureaucrats who are waiting for some kind of “return to normalcy” in an imagined post-AKP Turkey, Trump seems to have a different plan which seems to be baiting Turkey with a carrot and stick approach.

Trump will sometimes lash out at Turkey but this is typically as a result of the aforementioned domestic pressure coming from the US congress, condemning Trump’s cooperation with Turkey rather than any type of guilt he may have for helping Erdogan.

Trump has no guilt like this and when it comes to Turkey they are actually the ideal NATO partner in Trump's simplified version of geopolitics. Trump sees things like the billions of weapons deals that can be worked out with Turkey in the future, Turkey's payments to license and produce NATO arms paid to Brussels, and , of course, the large Turkish land army which has now taken up US occupation in Northern Syria, giving Trump a chance to say that he has fulfilled his 2016 promise to draw down in Syria as well as being able to say a US ally is continuing the “fight against ISIS.”

Do you believe Turkey achieved its goals in Syria?

I’m not sure that they’ve have completed any “final goal” as of yet but they are definitely building towards an occupation in Northern Syria that is being criminally unreported by western media. Whether it is Turkish language schools, Turkish post offices or Turkish authorities forcing arab populations that owe their safety to Ankara into the region to change the demographics of the area, the mission is definitely underway.

That said, the final goal (if you ask the AKP) is to totally eliminate the PKK threat along their border. This is probably just as unreasonable a goal as the US idea of “defeating Al Qaeda” after 2001. Regardless of what Turkey and their proxies that have been converted into an ccupying force the PKK insurgency is going to continue, but at the same time Erdogan could easily be counting on this and knows that this could help his political campaigns in the future by being able to continue drumming up anti-Kurdish sentiments during elections.

How do you evaluate creating new parties by Ahmet Davutoglu and maybe other political figures previously members of AK party? can these new parties be an alternative to this party and defeat it in the upcoming elections?

I don’t think either of these parties will end up opposing a significant direct competition to the Justice and Development Party. Although I do think there will be some AKP members who leave for Davutoglu’s new party and Babacan’s party that is expected to launch next year, that alone won’t be enough to remove the Erdogan from power.

However, as we have seen in the most recent municipal elections, there is an advantage to splits among the far-right parties. Much like the fighting between the AKP, MHP and the more IYI-aligned nationalists over the local races led the coalition that had won the AKP the previous national elections to fall apart; the fighting between the AKP and their new splinters in the next national election may open up a route to victory for the CHP if they manage to align with parties like the HDP to stop Erdogan. Erdogan has made important changes to voting laws and has definitely won some elections on thin margins likely with fake votes, but the further behind the AKP gets to its opponents could end up leaving them in an election los to bad to cheat their way out of.

Are these new parties able to solve the Kurdish problem in Turkey?

Unfortunately, I don’t think either one of these parties will be able to make any real progress on the Kurdish front. While in most countries, an opposition split like this could lead the main party (the AKP) to moderate it’s tone to try to win back voters but that doesn’t seem to be Erdogan’s plan.

It is likely that Davutoglu and Babacan’s will be more open to reopening negotiations with Kurds but as I stated above, they will probably directly never hold power in the near future. Erdogan, on the other hand, wil likely continue to target Kurds in order to try to keep the more-right wing nationalist voting base on his side. If more Turkish voters start looking towards these parties that are softer on Kurds and more willing to reopen dialogue with the PKK then they can at least be a crucial part of bringing some former-AKP members into an anti-Erdogan coalition that could leave the AKP with a minority in parliament (barring they don’t steal any elections).

Turkey has recently established a military base in Qatar, wants to send troops to Libya and focuses on Eastern Mediterranean for exploring oil and gas. how do you evaluate these new measures by Erdogan?

One way Erdogan has definitely sought to maintain power at home is by showing Turkish power abroad. This appeals heavily to his nationalist base but also his Islamist base that wants to see Turkey resume its place as the major power in the Middle East.

Whether it’s helping the UN-backed Libyan government (over objections by NATO ally Greece), building bases in Qatar and in Somalia, Erdogan is seeking to have a greater regional role and challenge the powers in the area that have been in place since the end of the Ottoman Empire such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt. As we can see from how much control Turkey has taken over the proxies fighting in Syria, there is obviously a calculated plan to export the AKP’s brand of takfirism in order to have more influence in Middle Eastern and North African countries.

Reporter’s code: 50101