People in Turkey will go to ballot boxes on March 31 for electing mayors in the cities across the country.

Turkey ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has started propaganda plans and even started war against protesting Kurdish forces, including military operation into the Kurdish city of Afrin in the north of Syria and intense operations against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in the Kurdistan Region.

James Carey told Kurdpress that fighting against Kurds has been a part of Erdogan’s policy in elections and it is not very unlikely for the president to conduct operations against the Kurds days ahead of the polls on March 31, adding that it is however impossible for Erdogan to launch an operation against the Kurds in the north of Syria as there are U.S. forces in the region.

What follows in Carey’s full answers to Kurdpress questions;

How do you see the result of the new Turkey elections on 31 march? Would Kurds get better results?

This election is incredibly hard to call due to the AKP censorship but it does seem they are losing their hold on voters. The most important part of this election will likely be the way it gauges continued support for the AKP.

With the economy in so much trouble it seems the AKP is losing support and I think the fact that the iYi party is still around will take some votes from the AKP. I also think the Communist candidate, Fatma Akin in Istanbul is heartening too because it shows another option for some more religious Turks that have been turned off from the AKP and lack faith in the CHP.

I do think the Kurds will also benefit from this lack of enthusiasm for the AKP. With the CHP neutered and the HDP sort of in a rebirth after the last Parliamentary election I think they, like the communists, are probably in the best position to offer change from the AKP without returning to the old status quo of the CHP.

It seems the U.S and Turkey have not made any agreement over Kurds and northern Syria. Is it true?

I think Donald Trump and Erdogan may have an agreement on Syria. I genuinely think Trump would like to pull out US troops and leave the “clean up” in northern Syria to Turkey.

The problem is on the United States end. Erdogan may have Trump’s consent but political factors don’t allow Trump to just pull US forces out of Syria. Many people here are either concerned for the SDF in northern Syria, still believe IS is a threat, or just say these things to justify further US military adventures. Due to this political pressure and obstruction by his own internal forces, Trump has failed to achieve what he’d like and this is what keeps a deal being finalized between Turkey and the US. The chances of reaching any agreement also just keep getting worse as conflicts and interests surrounding things like the sale of patriot missiles are making relations worse.

Will Turkey attack northern Syria before the polls?

It is likely there will be some kinds of attacks on Kurdish held areas somewhere but it could be in Syria or further operations in Iraq. Erdogan needs anti-Kurdish propaganda every election so there’s no reason to think this one will be different and you’re likely to see it get more intense as things look worse for the AKP.

For right now, Turkey’s ability to strike in Syria is limited thanks to US troops remaining in the area but as agreements are reached with Russia, Ankara could end up finding a new way to strike Kurdish territory with Moscow’s passive permission. Erdogan does need to hit Kurds for his propaganda so it should always be suspected he is looking for a way to do this, especially around elections.

Turkey says it will use new weapons like drones to wipe out the PKK, is that possible? Can PKK get such weapons?

Well Turkey will never “wipe out” the PKK as long as Kurds exist and have their identity. However, these targeted attacks will probably begin to happen more as the Turkish military continues to get spread thin over Northern Syria. In reference to your last question, I thin drone strikes may become a favorite of Ankara like they are to Washington as a way to make a “clean” kill of a specific target and blast it out in propaganda.

Whether the PKK can attain this type of technology depends on them both finding some allies to help with technology exchanges. Since this isn’t likely their next goal should be work on building an internal arms industry such as that developed by the Sana’a government in Yemen. If the PKK can find somewhere to use as a safe base of operations they could easily develop their own weapons systems.

How do you describe U.S announcement that some 400 forces will remain in Syria? Does it have any relation with protecting the Kurds against Turkey?

Again, this is caused by a lot of internal political forces in the US. Since the beginning of the War on Terror here, there has never been a talk in the media about why US forces are permanently deployed in war zones. Some of it has to do with the Kurds and ISIS but the larger part of this is the US fear is leaving the country open to Iran and Russia.

Forces inside the US state would rather the Kurds not be slaughtered but in some cases this is motivated by a desire to make sure Iran or Russia don’t gain influence over the Kurds in Syria. Even if the Kurds don’t directly return to talks with Damascus or ally with Tehran or Moscow there is also the concern that a Turkish occupation would likely be with permission from Russia. A major fear in the US the growing relations between Turkey and Russia and Iran. Erdogan would be willing to work with these countries in northern Syria which would be another loss to the US in the fight to control Turkish foreign policy.

Would you see any possible deal between Erdogan and Turkey Kurds in a near future?

I don’t think so but it would be his best option. Erdogan had some hope of changing things when he first entered into power and promised dialogue with the Kurds and even won a lot of Kurdish votes. If these old Erdogan policies came back there might actually be hope to fix the Turkish-Kurdish relationship.

Reporter’s code: 40101