According to Kurdpress, the opening of the new US consulate in Erbil, the center of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, last December was accompanied by extensive political and diplomatic propaganda. This project made Iraq the host of the two largest American diplomatic centers in the world: the massive Washington embassy in Baghdad and now the sprawling consulate in Erbil. However, the main question is whether this newly established group is a sign of the consolidation of American influence in Iraq, or will it become a factor in increasing security threats?

In recent years, the concern of American diplomatic centers in Iraq becoming the targets of missile and drone attacks has been raised many times. The reduction of the strength and staff of the American embassy in Baghdad was also done in the same framework. Now, with attacks on US positions increasing after recent regional tensions, these concerns seem more real than ever.

Simultaneously with the opening of the consulate in Erbil, the process of transferring part of the American forces from the areas under the control of the Iraqi central government to bases in the Kurdistan region also began. But the continued presence of America in this region has not only created deterrence, but also seems to have exposed the soil of the region to more attacks.

The long way of building the project

The new American consulate has now become one of the most prominent buildings in Erbil. The land of this complex was allocated by Erbil Municipality in 2013, and its implementation started in 2018 with a budget of nearly 800 million dollars; A figure that increased significantly compared to the initial estimate of 568 million dollars.

Even before the completion of the project, this complex was not considered just an office building. In 2023, Irwin Hicks, the then US Consul General in Erbil, declared that this project is "a message that America is not going anywhere". These words had a simultaneous message for Iraq's internal actors, regional allies, and especially the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq.  This party has always introduced Erbil as Washington's closest partner in Iraq.

At the time this project began, the traditional reasons for the closeness of the US and the Kurdistan Region - especially cooperation in the fight against ISIS after 2014 - were changing. The old American consulate in Erbil operated in a small building and was not a symbol of a long-term strategic presence.

Message to Baghdad

At the same time, the Kurdistan Region is under increasing economic and political pressure from Baghdad; It ranged from oil export restrictions to Federal Supreme Court rulings that transferred more fiscal powers to the central government. In such an atmosphere, the new consulate project for Erbil was considered a kind of political and security support from the US.

However, political sources in the region believe that this series is more than a sign of America's commitment to the region's security, it reflects the complexity of Washington's relations with the central government of Iraq and the ruling Shiite currents in Baghdad. According to these sources, the US may use Erbil as a less expensive space away from the political restrictions of Baghdad to manage sensitive Iraqi cases.

This view is consistent with the new American approach. In recent months, some American officials have spoken about the ineffectiveness of military interventions and emphasized the increasing role of diplomatic tools, including the Erbil consulate, to exert influence.

Political leverage for Erbil

For the Kurdistan Democratic Party, hosting such a series is still considered an important achievement. The large presence of America in Erbil strengthens this party's claim about the ability to manage the climate and its privileged relationship with Washington.

From an economic point of view, this project presents a picture of the stability and security of the climate compared to other regions of Iraq.  Presenting this image is very important to attract foreign investment and maintain Erbil's political position.

But recent developments have distorted this image. Drone and missile attacks by Iraqi groups on US-related positions in the region showed that Erbil is not immune to regional tensions. This issue can have a negative effect on the region's efforts to introduce itself as a safe region for investment.

Baghdad's concern and Kurdish internal competition

Some Shia currents in Baghdad are worried that the new American consulate in Erbil will weaken the diplomatic position of the central government. From their point of view, this action is a sign of Washington's decreasing confidence in Baghdad's ability to manage sensitive cases.

This project has not been without borders in the region. Sources close to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, the traditional rival of the Democratic Party, believe that the concentration of American influence in Erbil can exacerbate the political divide between the two main poles of power in the region.

Additionally, over-reliance on US support may prove costly in the long run. If Washington changes its approach towards Kurdish self-centeredness, Erbil will be in a weaker position in negotiations and conflicts with Baghdad.

The view of regional actors

Iran and groups close to it will likely continue to view US diplomatic facilities in Iraq as legitimate targets in the regional conflict. Therefore, if tensions escalate again, both the American embassy in Baghdad and the Erbil consulate can be targeted.

Türkiye also looks at the expansion of American presence in the region with complex calculations. Although Ankara considers climate stability and close relations with the Democratic Party desirable, the increasing role of America can limit the traditional influence of Türkiye in Erbil.

The new American consulate in Erbil is both a symbol of Washington's continued presence in Iraq and a sign of the change in the pattern of American influence from a military tool to diplomacy. But at the same time, this bold presence has exposed the Kurdistan Region to Iraq's internal competition and regional tensions more than before.

As a result, this project can have two meanings at the same time: a demonstration of American power and long-term investment, as well as becoming an obvious target in future conflicts in the Middle East.