According to Kordpress, Eliza Markus, a senior researcher on Kurdish issues and the author of two important books about the Turkish Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), announced in a detailed interview with the "Middle East Institute" that, unlike in the past, the PKK is not in a position militarily to easily resume a large-scale war against Turkey, and for this reason, it is forced to take the political path more seriously than ever before.

Marcus, who wrote the books "Blood and Belief" and "Rising and Revolution; PKK and Kurdish Struggle in Turkey and Syria" about the history and developments of this group, in this conversation he discussed the peace process between the Turkish government and Abdullah Ocalan, the future of PKK, the role of Syria and Iraq, and Ocalan's position in the structure of this organization.

At the beginning of the conversation about the PKK's decision to accept Abdullah Ocalan's call to disarm and dissolve the organization, he said that he was not surprised by this decision, because Ocalan is still considered the undisputed leader of the PKK and the legitimacy of the organization's entire structure comes from him.

According to Markus, within the PKK there may be objections and doubts about some of Öcalan's decisions, but it is almost impossible to stand up to him publicly. He emphasized that the idea of ​​forming a faction to confront Öcalan in the PKK is very difficult and far-fetched.

Referring to the failure of the previous peace processes in 1999, 2009 and 2013, this American researcher said that the main difference between the current situation and the previous periods is the severe military weakening of the PKK.

Markus added: "Today, Türkiye has an absolute superiority in terms of military; Drones, air force and new technologies have made the PKK no longer able to carry out effective guerrilla warfare like in the past. This group is mainly in a defensive position and is under severe pressure even in the Kurdistan region of Iraq.

He also emphasized that the leadership of the Iraqi Kurdistan region no longer wishes to continue the conflict between the PKK and Türkiye and considers the current war a destabilizing factor for the region.

Eliza Markus, a senior researcher on Kurdish issues, emphasized in an important part of her interview about the possibility of the complete disarmament of the PKK that, unlike in the past, this group is not in a position to easily return to a full-scale war, and this issue has increased the chances of the continuation of the peace process.

Compared to 2004, 2009 or 2015, the PKK is now much weaker militarily and has lost its former infrastructure inside Türkiye, he said. According to Markus, the Turkish army has been able to severely limit the military position of the PKK in recent years by relying on drones, air superiority and new technologies; So that this group is no longer able to carry out extensive operations inside Türkiye like in the past and is mainly in a defensive position.

."Today, the PKK has to decide whether it wants to move towards politics or become a less effective organization, because the war in recent years has not really achieved anything new for the group," he said

Markus also pointed to the PKK's symbolic act of burning weapons and said that this group is currently serious about continuing the peace process, and at least in the short term, the possibility of a quick return to violence is low.

However, he emphasized that the complete and permanent disarmament of the PKK depends on the progress of the political process and the response of the Turkish government to the demands of the Kurds. According to him, if the negotiation process continues for a long time without concrete results, a part of the PKK body may have doubts about the future, because this organization has always tried to maintain its position and coherence.

Markus said: "After the arrest of Abdullah Öcalan in 1999, it took about four years for the PKK to return to the war again. "Now, only about a year has passed since the new process, and so far the signs are that this group wants to continue the path of peace."

At the same time, he emphasized that even if the PKK wants to enter the conflict phase again, the current situation is different from the past, and this group is not in the same position neither in terms of military, nor in terms of internal infrastructure, nor in terms of regional support.

The expert on Kurdish issues also said that Abdullah Ocalan is still the only person who can lead the PKK to a comprehensive peace agreement and therefore his role will remain decisive in any possible disarmament process.

He explained that at that time, the People's Democratic Party (HDP) had achieved a great electoral success, the Kurds had a wide political influence in the southeast of Turkey and even had support at the international level due to the fight against ISIS, but the PKK thought that by creating an urban war and declaring autonomy in some cities, it could force the Turkish government to retreat.

According to him, this calculation was wrong and the Turkish government destroyed the political, social and security infrastructure of the PKK in Kurdish cities with extensive military operations.

This expert on Kurdish issues went on to clarify that although there is a deep distrust of the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan among the Kurds, the PKK today has limited options and, unlike in the past, does not have many pressure cards.

He also pointed to the role of Syria in the new equations and said that the continued conflict between the PKK and Turkey makes Ankara consider the Kurdish structures in northeastern Syria as a direct threat to its security.

Regarding the PKK's regional branches, including the People's Protection Units (YPG) in Syria, Marcos also explained that these groups were originally supposed to be relatively independent structures, but in practice remained under the PKK's organizational umbrella.

However, he believes that the new developments in Syria may gradually lead to more practical independence for the Syrian Kurdish forces, as conditions on the ground no longer allow for direct management by Qandil.

Regarding the situation of the Syrian Kurdish forces, Elisa Markus said that the main issue is no longer the survival of the YPG, but the future of the political, administrative and social structures that the Kurds have created during the years of civil war in northeastern Syria.

Markus emphasized that the Syrian Kurds are now trying to preserve some of these structures, from local councils to civil institutions and women's organizations, but the new government in Damascus has a strict stance on these demands.

He also said that negotiations between the PKK and Türkiye do not necessarily mean a deal on the future of the Syrian Kurds, and Öcalan does not have the power to determine the fate of Syria. According to him, the future of the Syrian Kurds depends more on the negotiations between Damascus and the Syrian Kurdish forces than on the agreements between Türkiye and the PKK.

Eliza Markus also emphasized that the experience of the Syrian Kurds and the feeling of being "abandoned" by America after the war with ISIS has made Kurdish groups more cautious about trusting Washington. He said that despite the dissatisfaction with the slowness of the negotiation process, the PKK seems to be serious on the path of peace and the symbolic action of burning weapons is also a sign of this approach.

According to Marcus, even if the talks fail, it will not necessarily weaken Abdullah Ocalan's position, as a large part of the Kurds still see him as the only person capable of leading the PKK towards a peace deal.