According to Kurdpress, Türkiye and Britain have opened a new chapter in the geopolitical equations of this region by signing a major energy agreement in northern Iraq. An agreement that prioritizes the oil fields of Kirkuk and can affect both the balance of power between Baghdad and Erbil and reduce Iraq's dependence on foreign gas.

In the framework of this agreement, the Turkish state oil company TPAO and the British company BP will start extensive cooperation in field development, exploration, increasing export capacity and regional gas transmission. The immediate focus of this cooperation is on Kirkuk oil fields; A region that is considered one of the most sensitive energy points in this country due to its geographical location between the federal government of Iraq and the Kurdistan region.

According to the announced plans, the state oil company of Türkiye wants to add about 500,000 barrels of oil and gas per day to its overseas production by 2028. On the other hand, BP is pursuing an initial production of 328,000 barrels per day in the form of a five-field development contract with the Iraqi Ministry of Oil. This project includes Baba and Awaneh fields from Kirkuk field and three adjacent fields of Baihasan, Jambor and Khabaz. It is estimated that the production of this complex will reach at least 450,000 barrels per day in the next two to three years. The cost of extracting each barrel of oil in these fields is within the average range of Iraq, that is, around 2 to 4 dollars, which is considered one of the lowest levels in the world.

The proven reserves of these five fields are estimated up to 9 billion barrels, although sources close to the Iraqi Ministry of Oil believe that the real capacity of the region could be another 11 to 12 billion barrels. In addition to oil, the collection and exploitation of gas along with oil is an important part of this plan. The primary goal is to contain about 400 million cubic feet of associated gas per day, a large part of which was burned until now. BP also has previous experience in flaring reduction projects in southern Iraq.

The importance of this agreement is not only limited to increasing oil production. Iraq still provides about 40% of its electricity through the import of gas and electricity. Controlling associated gases and using them to produce electricity or feed for petrochemical industries can reduce part of this dependence and allow Baghdad to adopt a more independent energy policy.

For Türkiye, the active presence in Kirkuk is not only an economic project, but also a part of the strategy of stabilizing influence in northern Iraq and playing a more effective role in the energy equation of the region. Cooperation with BP in an area previously defined by Russia as its informal sphere of influence is seen as a sign of Ankara's foreign policy realignment and re-emphasis on Western ties.

In sum, the agreement between TPAO and BP can have three simultaneous consequences: increasing Iraq's oil production, gradually reducing the country's dependence on gas imports, and rearranging the geopolitical balance along the old east-west fault line in the Middle East. Northern Iraq has once again become the scene of competition between regional and international powers