According to Kurdpress, as the Patriot air defense system and the majority of US forces begin to withdraw from the Erbil base on the eve of the implementation of the Baghdad-Washington security agreement, there are signs of a change in the security balance in the Kurdistan Region. While the US is reducing its military presence, Turkey, by expanding its security and military influence in the border and mountainous areas, seems more prepared than any other actor to fill the void caused by this withdrawal.According to an Al-Monitor report by Umbreen Zaman, as well as assessments published by Kurdistan Watch, the United States has begun the process of withdrawing its equipment and troops from the Erbil airport military base. Under the security agreement between Baghdad and Washington, the withdrawal of the majority of American forces from Erbil should be completed by September.

The Patriot air defense system has also been withdrawn from the Erbil base, according to the report. An informed source told Al-Monitor that due to the shortage of defensive interceptor missiles, the US priority is now to protect the Persian Gulf countries and Jordan, and the Kurdistan Region is no longer a priority.

However, this withdrawal does not mean the end of US-Iraqi military cooperation.Michael Knights, director of research at Horizon Engage, told Al-Monitor that it is likely that US special forces will remain in some parts of Iraq in a limited and low-key manner, and that security cooperation between the two countries will continue.

Meanwhile, analysts believe that the most important consequence of this development will be an increased role for Turkey in the security equations of the Kurdistan Region. The trend of developments in recent months shows that, as the US military presence decreases and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) gradually withdraws from some areas of the region as part of the peace process with Turkey, especially in areas controlled by the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq, Turkish forces have expanded their presence to prevent the creation of a security vacuum.

It is not yet clear whether this process will lead to the direct deployment of Turkish forces inside the city of Erbil, but some reports indicate that the PKKThe KDP is leaving the Gara Mountains and the Turkish army will take its place. If these reports are true, its strategic importance will be even greater than the establishment of a permanent Turkish base in Erbil.

The Gara Mountains command a significant part of the communication routes between the areas controlled by the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq in the provinces of Dohuk and Erbil, and its control could give Turkey a significant advantage in managing the security developments in northern Iraq.

For the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq, this situation is both an opportunity and a challenge. The party has tried in recent years to avoid excessive dependence on Ankara while maintaining a strategic partnership with Turkey.For this reason, Erbil has expanded its relations with the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, especially the United Arab Emirates, and maintained communication channels with Iran, while at the same time establishing close relations with the United States and Western countries.

However, the gradual reduction of the American presence and the expansion of Turkey’s field and security influence could upset this balance. In such a situation, Ankara is likely to consolidate its position as the most important foreign actor in the areas controlled by the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq more than before; a process that may gradually reduce Erbil’s degree of autonomy in regional politics and further limit the party’s room for maneuver in regulating relations with other actors.

This development also shows that the future of the security of the Kurdistan Region depends more than ever on how the relations between Erbil, Baghdad, and Ankara are managed, as well as on the fate of the peace process between Türkiye and the PKK.K is tied up; a process that could cause significant changes to the geopolitical map of northern Iraq in the coming years.